Tony, Nick, Drew, Danny and Brian: The Pressure Is On, Lads
Promotion, relegation and the decisions Tasmanian football is waiting for
There is something happening in Canberra that caught my attention this week.
Not because I necessarily agree with what they have decided. In fact I am a great believer in promotion and relegation and in clubs being able to earn their way up the football pyramid.
But Canberra has done something Tasmania has not yet done.
It has told its clubs what is happening.
And as our 2026 seasons reach their climax, with championships being decided and two clubs about to leave the NPL, that seems increasingly important.
Because in Tasmania we know who is going down.
What we don't yet know is how anyone gets back up.
Promotion and Relegation 101
Promotion and relegation is one of the things that makes football, well, football.
Finish at or near the bottom of one division and you go down.
Win or finish near the top of the division below and you get the opportunity to go up.
Different countries and competitions do it differently. Sometimes it is automatic. Sometimes there are playoffs. Sometimes clubs must also satisfy financial, facility or licensing requirements.
But across most of the football world the fundamental principle is the same.
Performance has consequences.
There is jeopardy at the bottom.
There is opportunity at the top.
And there is always somewhere to aspire to.
England, Scotland, Germany, France, Spain, Italy and countless other football nations operate pyramids in which clubs can rise and fall according to what happens on the pitch.
There are, of course, some notable closed shop exceptions.
Australia is one.
Our A-League remains disconnected from the NPL competitions below it. Win an NPL competition and there is no sporting route into the A-League. Finish bottom of the A-League and you don't get relegated.
The United States is another obvious example. Major League Soccer operates as a closed league without promotion and relegation, and incoming commissioner Larry Berg made clear this week that it isn't happening anytime soon, calling it "not appropriate for our league."
Mexico has also suspended promotion and relegation, with Liga MX confirming there will be no promotion or relegation for the 2026-27 season.
Interestingly India has headed in the other direction. The Indian Super League introduced relegation for the first time this season, with the bottom club dropping down and the second tier champion coming up.
So closed competitions exist.
But across world football they remain very much the exception rather than the rule.
And that brings me to Canberra.
So What Has Happened in Canberra?
Capital Football has made a very clear decision.
There will be no promotion or relegation in its NPL youth competitions in 2027.
There is some history behind that.
The collapse and withdrawal of Gungahlin United created considerable disruption to Canberra football. Capital Football subsequently changed its competition structures and suspended the normal promotion and relegation arrangements.
But clubs weren't all happy about that continuing into 2027.
They asked the Capital Football Board to reconsider.
The Board did.
Twice.
Then on 7 August it publicly gave everybody its answer.
No.
The Board said its original decision had been made to provide stability and certainty following the disruption caused by Gungahlin United.
It acknowledged that clubs aspiring to reach the NPL would be disappointed.
But it was unequivocal.
"We stand by our decision."
And just in case anyone thought there might be another round of discussion:
"The Board does not intend to revisit this decision again."
Read the Capital Football Board statement
Now I am not convinced I like their decision.
I can certainly understand why a club sitting below the NPL, investing in coaches, players, facilities and development and trying to win its competition, might be more than a little unhappy to discover that there is no door through which it can progress.
But I do like one thing about it.
Everyone knows.
The clubs know.
The coaches know.
The players know.
The committees know.
The people preparing budgets for next year know.
Capital Football has made the call, explained why it made it and put it publicly on the record.
There is certainty.
And that is where my mind immediately came back to Tasmania.
Meanwhile, Back in Tasmania...
Our situation is quite different.
Tasmania expanded the men's NPL from eight teams to ten for 2026.
We were also told from the outset that this was temporary.
At the completion of this season two clubs would be relegated and the competition would return to eight teams for 2027.
So far, so clear.
Launceston United and Ulverstone will leave the NPL and we return to eight.
But then comes the question I cannot find a clear answer to.
What happens after that?
Is eight the permanent number?
Does the bottom NPL club get relegated in 2027?
Can a Championship club be promoted?
Is promotion automatic?
Is there a playoff?
Does the Northern Championship winner play the Southern Championship winner?
Does that winner then play the bottom NPL club?
What licensing requirements apply?
What happens if a Championship winner doesn't satisfy them?
And what happens if the Championship winner already has a team in the NPL?
These aren't obscure administrative questions.
They determine whether we actually have a football pyramid.
And This Isn't Hypothetical
Look at what is happening right now.
South Hobart's Championship men are within touching distance of winning the Southern Championship.
Meanwhile the Southern Championship Women has developed into a cracking finish.
University currently sits top on 41 points from 18 games.
South Hobart sits just one point behind on 40, having played only 17.
And this Sunday they play each other at D'Arcy Street.
It could hardly be set up better.
Potentially South Hobart could finish the season with both its men's and women's Championship teams as league champions.
A wonderful achievement if they can do it.
But it also gives us a perfect real life example of why the structure needs to be understood.
What does winning a Championship actually mean?
South Hobart already has an NPL men's team, so what happens if its Championship side wins the Southern Championship?
Does an opportunity pass to the next eligible club?
Does nobody get promoted?
Does the Northern champion come into the equation?
Is there a playoff?
And on the women's side, how does the Championship connect with the Women's Super League?
This isn't really about South Hobart.
Next season it could be another club asking exactly the same questions.
It is about what winning the competition means.
Enter The Chosen Ones
Of course there may be an answer coming.
I certainly hope so.
We know Football Tasmania is undertaking its competition review.
I previously wrote about the small group selected to help with that process and, perhaps a little cheekily, christened them The Chosen Ones.
I subsequently interviewed Football Tasmania CEO Tony Pignata about the review and why he had chosen a smaller group rather than another enormous meeting involving everybody and their dog.
Fair enough.
And I suspect there must be an enormous amount going on behind the scenes.
There certainly should be.
Because promotion and relegation cannot possibly be considered in isolation. Competition sizes, the North-South divide, travel, facilities, licensing, financial sustainability, reserve teams, women's football and player pathways all come into it.
None of this should be decided on the back of an envelope.
So let's hope The Chosen Ones are busy.
But We Are All Waiting
And this is where consultation becomes so important.
Out here in clubland we are sitting on the edge of our seats waiting to hear what comes next.
What does this mean for our club?
What does it mean for our players?
What does it mean for the teams we currently have?
What competition are they going to be playing in?
What pathway can we offer them?
And when will we know?
Because football clubs don't magically reappear in March ready for another season.
Budgets need to be drawn.
Coaches need to be appointed.
Players need to make decisions.
Teams need to be entered.
Sponsors need to know what they are supporting.
Committees need to plan.
Clubs investing significant amounts of money, time and energy into player development need to understand where that pathway ultimately leads.
These are decisions that are being made now.
That is why the Canberra announcement interested me so much.
I don't necessarily want Canberra's answer.
But I wouldn't mind their certainty.
Their clubs know the rules of the game.
Ours need to know too.
Over to the Chosen Ones
Perhaps the answers are already being worked through.
Perhaps there is a new competition model sitting on a table somewhere.
Perhaps we are finally going to see a clearly articulated Tasmanian football pyramid.
Perhaps there will be playoffs.
Perhaps licensing will determine eligibility.
Perhaps something entirely different is being contemplated.
Perhaps there are ideas none of us have even considered.
I genuinely look forward to hearing them.
But the clock is ticking.
The 2026 champions are being decided now.
Two clubs are being relegated now.
Clubs are beginning to plan for 2027 now.
Budgets are being considered now.
Players and coaches will soon be making decisions.
So now it is over to Tony, Nick, Drew, Danny and Brian.
No pressure, lads.
Well, actually...
There probably is a bit of pressure.
Because all around Tasmanian football we are sitting on the edge of our seats waiting for the consultation.
Not because we are impatient or simply curious, but because the decisions that follow it will shape what our clubs, teams and players do next.
What does it mean for our clubs?
What does it mean for our teams?
And, most importantly, what does it mean for our players?
So Tony, Nick, Drew, Danny and Brian, the ball is very much in your court.
The pressure is on, lads.
And while we wait, one very simple question remains.